Is capital fleeing China? The recent crackdown on official corruption might suggest that fat cats are busy whisking their money out of the country to avoid scrutiny. That impression is strengthened by the apparently endless flow of Chinese money into luxury goods, penthouses and other trophies in London, New York and Paris.  Lots of money is undoubtedly leaving China, despite the country’s strict currency controls. However, a close look at the official figures suggests that, on balance, more hot money… has been flowing in.

A new study by Global Financial Integrity (GFI), a research firm, highlights one popular way illicit flows enter the mainland.   It claims that well over $400 billion has poured into China since 2006 outside the official channels, with inflows in the first quarter of 2013 alone topping $50 billion. GFI believes exporters on the mainland exaggerate the prices of goods sent to Hong Kong in order to evade China’s strict currency controls and bring back pots of cash.  Why would they bring money into China? One reason is to take advantage of a steadily appreciating yuan. Once punters sneak money into China, eye-catching if risky investments beckon in the overheated property market and poorly regulated shadow-banking sector.

Another explanation relates to the prolonged period of low interest rates in America. GFI notes that flows of hot money into China surged when the Federal Reserve began trying to suppress rates by buying up government bonds and other securities. Now that the Fed is “tapering” its asset purchases, it is reasonable to ask if the flow of hot money will slow or even reverse.  Chinese regulators have noisily complained about the illicit inflows. In December they promised a crackdown on over-invoicing and other such scams.

Chinese capital flows: Hot and hidden, Economist, Jan 18, 2014, at  73