Homicides in Latin America are driven by violent cartels. The impact of Mexican cartels is especially far reaching because they prey upon undocumented migrants along the US-Mexico border, violate human rights, and weaken political and economic institutions. However, cartels remain mysterious despite being a major employer. Because understanding how Mexican cartels function is essential to attenuating their power, Prieto-Curiel et al. conducted a sophisticated analysis that estimated their population size and examined factors driving cartel growth and shrinkage. Factors included “recruitment” (new cartel members join), “incapacitation” (police incarcerate or arrest members), “conflict” (cartels fight other cartels), and “saturation” (members leave). Findings suggest that reducing “recruitment” instead of increasing “incapacitation” is a much more effective policy to decrease violence. This is because cartels are one of the biggest employers in Mexico. Recruiting between 350 and 370 people per week is essential to avoid their collapse because of aggregate losses. 

Summary of Rafael Prieto-Curiel  et al., Reducing cartel recruitment is the only way to lower violence in Mexico, Science, Sept. 21, 2023