“Tehran has drawn a simple lesson from every game of chicken with Washington: Hold your nerve long enough, and America swerves first,” said Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group. “For a system that believes it is fighting for survival…existential threats tend to harden resolve, not impose a price ceiling on resistance.”…

Trump began the war declaring that his goal was to force Iran into a deal that would prevent it from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon. But as the conflict has worn on, and Tehran has asserted control it didn’t have before over global energy flows in the strait, his priorities appear to have shifted. The White House has become increasingly pessimistic…about achieving a final nuclear settlement with Tehran. Instead, Trump has focused on squeezing Iran’s battered economy so the regime does a deal to open the waterway that would let him declare victory in the war and move on…

People close to Iran’s top negotiators have warned peace talks could be just an interlude before more conflict. Mehdi Mohammadi, a strategic adviser to chief Iranian negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, described the current situation as the calm before the storm…In an social-media post, Mohammadi said the drivers of continued conflict include a “generational project for blood vengeance” for the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. “The Iranian nation still has much unfinished business with Trump,” said Mohammadi, who is also a member of Iran’s negotiating team. “Iran is prepared for the great confrontation.”

Excerpt from Georgi Kantchev et al., The Iran War Is Now About Who Blinks First Under Economic Pressure, WSJ, Aug. 14, 2026

Excerpt from Benoit Faucon et al., Iran’s Secret Plan to Escalate the War, WSJ, Aug. 16, 2026